Each year at this time, when westerly moving disturbances form "low" around the ten-degree latitude mark with a healthy low pressure, I always stop and think: is this the one that's going to wipe us out? Cause us to spend days without electricity, convenience stores, ice cream and fast food? Will the grocery stores run out of water in the next few days?

Happy 4th of July, the fireworks display from the National Weather Service in Miami include Disturbance 2, which has a 70% chance of cyclone formation over the next few days, or it could be nothing to worry about for us.

At about 7 PM, Lake Charles time, satellite indicated a small area of low pressure and a tropical wave about a 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

The bad news is, it's become better organized, so much so a tropical depression could form over the next day or two as it moves over the warm tropical Atlantic. Present movement is west-northwestward at 15-20 MPH.

The good news is, by the weekend, upper-level shearing winds are expected to become less conducive for development, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.

It isn't quite time to run out and empty the shelves of bottled water and toilet paper, not yet.

Happy Fourth of July.

National Weather Service - Miami, Florida July 4, 2018 8 PM EDT