While anything can change at any time we're almost confident enough to say we've got a bead on where Dorian is most likely heading. The massive storm rolled over the Bahama's like a twenty pound bowling ball and for all purposes looks to ravage the east coast this week.

National Weather Service Miami - Sept 2, 2019 1050 AM

Overnight a slight disturbance centered loosely at the mouth of the Bay of Campeche has swirled up into a better organized widespread area of  showers and thundershowers. The National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression could form during the next few days. The low is moving slowly westward toward the coast of Mexico for the moment but bears a close eye from us in SWLA and SETX.

The prognosticators put the chance of Orange X2 developing into something more tropical over the next five days at thirty to forty percent.